Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 22.426517 23.769631 25.190480 26.812266 28.620592 30.584868 32.893491
2026-01-25 20.159263 21.978180 24.000256 26.438485 29.331711 32.698910 36.981829
2026-02-01 18.694572 20.727346 23.056255 25.963096 29.555795 33.939373 39.842857
2026-02-08 17.272032 19.368004 21.818961 24.952474 28.939680 33.977065 41.064785
2026-02-15 16.838019 19.122255 21.855945 25.449202 30.181557 36.419562 45.696921
2026-02-22 16.367353 18.784224 21.733278 25.702541 31.090028 38.468850 50.030019
2026-03-01 15.556428 17.971695 20.955114 25.032107 30.675866 38.606381 51.488324
2026-03-08 14.403138 16.677250 19.498250 23.373789 28.776049 36.437029 49.045541
2026-03-15 14.074160 16.411487 19.349371 23.453120 29.300672 37.840671 52.514397
2026-03-22 13.813547 16.217617 19.278375 23.624319 29.954828 39.482739 56.617111
2026-03-29 13.468246 15.897244 19.021290 23.515637 30.180538 40.465442 59.696902
2026-04-05 13.296049 15.794141 19.046175 23.799190 31.003723 42.473655 65.028795
2026-04-12 12.960789 15.515318 18.890388 23.920791 31.759397 44.753423 72.107907
2026-04-19 12.479874 15.028682 18.434975 23.590513 31.803392 45.876873 77.291948
2026-04-26 12.028232 14.557042 17.969321 23.201825 31.697646 46.688580 82.006159
2026-05-03 11.471188 13.919083 17.238928 22.365005 30.773277 45.847857 82.453310
2026-05-10 11.338996 13.857984 17.322533 22.776679 31.986018 49.279025 95.316511
2026-05-17 11.156897 13.717774 17.281826 22.986198 32.864129 52.200867 108.433702
2026-05-24 10.771169 13.277011 16.781884 22.431119 32.320449 52.037408 111.762206
2026-05-31 10.172555 12.520376 15.794544 21.049947 30.190619 48.217032 101.502156
2026-06-07 10.008511 12.374563 15.703903 21.116289 30.718142 50.303607 112.830076
2026-06-14 9.874898 12.266605 15.663425 21.259364 31.397249 52.848321 127.700404
2026-06-21 9.687205 12.074688 15.488691 21.168551 31.621720 54.371803 139.726922